Dealing with Diaspora Dissent in Different Domains

A Conceptual Framework of State Strategies
on Foreign Social Media


Allison Koh



WZB “Digitalization and Society” Lecture Series
April 3, 2023

Overview



Areas of Inquiry: State Strategies, Diaspora Dissent, Foreign Social Media

Why do diasporas pose a unique threat to governments engaging in repression?

What resources are available for states to control social media activity?

How do states address diaspora dissent on foreign social media?


How do we address these questions empirically?

📊 Data and measurement

⚠️ Limitations and ethical considerations

Diasporas as Regime Threats

What is so threatening about dissent in diasporas?

“Horizontal” networks at home 🏡
(Brinkerhoff 2009; Alonso and Oiarzabal 2010; Bernal 2020)

“Vertical” networks abroad 🌏
(Keck and Sikkink 1999; Michaelsen 2018; Esberg and Siegel 2020)

➡️ Diaspora dissidents can credibly ruin a state’s international reputation.

State Motivations for Reputation Management

Why would states be incentivized to limit diaspora dissent?


  • Fragment cross-border connections
  • Discourage mobilization of potential challengers

External image management (Krcmaric 2019; Dukalskis 2021)

  • Evade sanctions
  • Promote favorable foreign policy outcomes


🔎📕 Transnational repression: Tools/tactics to intimidate and silence diaspora dissent

Affordances of Social Media for State Repression

What do we know? Where are the research gaps?

 

At Home 🏡

Abroad 🌍

Domestic Platforms

Direct control over platform policies (King, Pan, and Roberts 2013; Stockmann 2013)

States + proxies disrupt information flows (King, Pan, and Roberts 2017; Roberts 2018)



State agents contact/surveil regime threats (Dalmasso et al. 2018; Schenkkan and Linzer 2021)

Coercion-by-proxy of family/friends at home (Adamson and Tsourapas 2020; Moss, Michaelsen, and Kennedy 2022)

Foreign Platforms

State-aligned trolling/harassment (Nyst and Monaco 2018; Posetti et al. 2021)

Content blocking and platform use restrictions (Pan 2017)

State + proxies frame repressive actions

Targeted disinformation and threats

➡️ No provision over “image management”

Addressing Diaspora Dissent on Foreign Social Media



Which diaspora dissidents are targeted?

  • Prominent activists in exile are more threatening than other diaspora; clear and credible relationship to the state
  • More international attention ➡️ more indiscriminate efforts

Who is behind the keyboard?

  • States: officials, hired trolls, bots
  • Other pro-government actors: genuine regime loyalists, non-citizen “tankies”

Data and Measurement

Resources

  • Expert-curated datasets on transnational repression (Dukalskis et al. 2022)
    • Global (Freedom House, Authoritarian Actions Abroad Database (AAAD)
    • Regional: Central Asian Political Exiles, China’s Transnational Repression of Uyghurs
  • Social media data
    • APIs: Twitter 🪦; other resources (e.g. TikTok, CrowdTangle)
    • [Mostly Python-based] Scrapers: snscrape, twint
  • Measurement with text/unstructured data
    • Vitriol/Toxicity: Jigsaw’s Perspective API
    • Large Language Models (LLMs) for inductive theory development; data labeling tasks

Limitations and Ethical Considerations


Limitations

  • More information from democracies ➡️ difficult to compare across host state regime type
  • Information on political exiles may not be applicable to all diaspora
  • Inconsistency in using ready-made measurement tools to understand variation across some dimensions (e.g. gender, language)
  • LLMs cannot replace humans for many labeling tasks (e.g. political stance)

Ethical considerations

  • ⚠️ Don’t create an instruction manual for dictators!
  • Implications of collecting social media data in the post-API age? (Freelon 2018)

Conclusion

Why do diasporas pose a unique threat to governments engaging in repression?

       ➡️ Credible sources of information on state repression; connections at home and abroad

What resources are available for states to control social media activity?

       ➡️ Variation across where social media platforms and targets are based

       ➡️ No direct provision over “image management” on foreign platforms

How do states address diaspora dissent on foreign social media?

       ➡️ Prioritize exiles over other diaspora

       ➡️ Address more indiscriminately during times of increased international attention

📊 Data and measurement

       ➡️ Expert-curated data on TR, social media data, machine learning models/LLMs

⚠️ Limitations and ethical considerations

       ➡️ Focus on information about individuals who are already in the public eye

Thank you!

koh@hertie-school.org

https://allisonkoh.github.io/

@allisonwkoh@mastodon.social🎓

@allisonwkoh@fosstodon.org📊

@allisonkoh_

References

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Bernal, Victoria. 2020. “African Digital Diasporas: Technologies, Tactics, and Trends: Introduction.” African Diaspora 12 (1-2): 1–10.
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